Intifada 2.0?

Black flags in advance of Nakba Day in Bethlehem this week.

According to news reports and coffee shop chatter, forthcoming Nakba Day demonstrations will launch a new intifada. Thanks to social networking, this time it's organised from the outset.

Facebook groups and apparently viral SMS messages are calling for Sunday's demos to be the start of what proponents hope will be the Palestinian Spring. There's even a promo video.

Palestinian Muslims pray on the pavement after Israeli police bar all under-45s from the Old City of Jerusalem today.

Following the qualified successes of the Arab Spring, Palestinians are being encouraged to recommence the concerted resistance characteristic of the first and second intifadas and, despite the reservations of many, some are hoping and believing that this time it really could work. The inspiration from Egypt is that no repression can be total in the electronic age - although Mubarak wasn't quite as adept at e-Hasbara as his Israeli counterparts.

In any case, there are two problems with this. The first is that it may just be what Netanyahu has been crying out for: a chance to delegitimise Palestinian attempts at declaring statehood (though Palestinians will point out that statehood in a territory as unviable as the West Bank cannot really be worth the wait). The second is that, despite the new unity deal, Palestinians do not share an endgame other than desiring the freedom to live normal lives.

Oh, and there's a third problem. Fatah/Hamas. One appears compromised and visionless, and one is etched on the mind for its defenestration of opponents.

The ball is obviously in Israel's court and, as Stephen Sizer points out, the question it still won't answer is this: of the Occupied Territories, Democracy, and Jewish statehood, which are you willing to give up? Hopefully, the Third Intifada will force the question rather than burying it.